Vestigo · Deadlock

What a lead is worth

41,117 ranked games · 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-15

How it's measured

Lose your lane, lose the game? How often a team wins by how many souls ahead or behind it was at each minute of a ranked match.

1 in 7At minute 20, 10 %–20 % behind: you win 15 %
3 %of teams over 20 % behind at minute 20 win
28 %still win at minute 9 from 10 %–20 % behind: the early game forgives

Before and after the comeback nerf

The September 16 patch cut the comeback mechanics. Same 13 days on each side, at minute 20.

	Before		After
Games already lopsided (10%+ apart)	50.0 %	→	47.3 %
Comebacks from 10–20% behind	100.0 %	→	14.1 %
Comebacks from over 20% behind	0.0 %	→	2.3 %

Win rate by soul lead

Each cell: how often the team with that soul lead (or deficit) at that minute went on to win. The lead is relative: souls ahead over the average of both teams.

	← Behind				Even	Ahead →
Minute	> 30 %	20–30 %	10–20 %	5–10 %	± 5 %	5–10 %	10–20 %	20–30 %	> 30 %
6′	—	21	33	41	50	59	67	79	—
9′	7	16	28	38	50	62	72	84	93
12′	4	12	24	35	50	65	76	88	96
15′	2	6	19	31	50	69	81	94	98
20′	0	4	15	29	50	71	85	96	100
25′	0	2	12	28	50	72	88	98	100
30′	0	1	9	23	50	77	91	99	100
35′	—	1	7	20	50	80	93	99	—

How to read it: find the minute on the left and how far ahead or behind your team was; the number is how often teams in that spot won.